N BC's rollout of its tentative prime-time schedule stretching from fall 2008 through the summer of 2009 created a considerable amount of goodwill with media agencies and advertisers last week. But the fourth-place network is still under the gun to deliver on its promises.
"I applaud [NBC] for being proactive," said Steve Lanzano, CEO of media agency MPG's U.S. operations. "Announcing this programming that far in advance will allow clients to get more easily involved at the script level with branded integrations. But it will still be a gross ratings points futures market in that there is no way to know now what we would pay for a show that will air that far in advance."
Steve Sternberg, executive vp, audience analysis, for Magna Global, added, "I know there are cynics who like to bash everything, but it was one of the better presentations I've seen in a long time."
Clearly, NBC offered some desirable options for advertisers, saying for instance that it will program 8-9 p.m. with family-oriented shows, be they scripted, game shows or other reality-type programming. And Ben Silverman, co-chairman of NBC Entertainment and Universal Media Studios, who oversees programming on the network, also said the goal was to have no repeat episodes of its most popular shows, including during the 10-11 p.m. hour when more adult-oriented series will air.
"They showed us a lot of good opportunities for our clients, but now they will have to execute," said Harry Keeshan, executive vp of national broadcast at media agency PHD.
Buyers liked several of NBC's programming moves: scheduling Fear Itself, an original horror anthology scripted series this summer; announcing a return of the miniseries, including The Last Templar starring Mira Sorvino and Scott Foley; offering several Saturday Night Live presidential election-themed specials in prime time; and bringing back critically acclaimed but ratings-challenged Friday Night Lights in partnership with DirecTV.
The satellite company will air FNL episodes beginning this October while NBC will only air those same episodes starting February '09. But Silverman said that financial remuneration from the deal was a way for the network to keep the show on the air.
Also sitting well with advertisers: Silverman's pledge to replace shows that don't work with shows from similar genres. For example, he said he will replace a failed comedy with a new comedy, rather than just tossing a reality show into any faltering time period.
Even so, many wonder where this arsenal of replacement programming will come from, and how quickly it can be put on the air, if NBC has no pilot development to store some shows in its hopper. Others questioned whether shows like Crusoe, based on the life of Robinson Crusoe, and Arthurian fantasy Merlin are too vertical in audience appeal and might fail to draw broader audiences.
Silverman said that both movie and TV audiences are returning to programming with familiar themes and that NBC will offer original concepts to its remakes.
In terms of NBC's strategy this year to do fewer pilots and a 52-week prime-time schedule, Silverman denied NBC was motivated by being the fourth-place network. In fact, he said the model would have evolved this way because the traditional way of developing shows and putting a schedule together is too costly and doesn't work anymore. "Ninety percent of the pilots of shows that get on the air are not representative of the series, and those series eventually fail," Silverman said at a special media session of NBC's presentation. "There are pilots that cost $10 million and bear no resemblance to the second episodes."
Silverman added that the odds of succeeding with a show are just as good if you go with your gut. And he defended bringing in successful shows from other countries and adapting them for U.S. audiences. This process, he explained, enables a network to get better stars onboard because they can view an on-air show rather than just reading a script.
But a competing network programmer, who did not want to speak for attribution, refuted some of Silverman's points. Most drama pilots, the rival exec said, can be made for a little more than $3 million and comedy pilots average $1.2 million, not the $10 million Silverman quoted.
"Would you buy a car from a manufacturer that didn't do any test cars and they just went right into production from a drawing?" the programmer said. "Imagine the money that would be wasted on cars that did not sell or work based on that model."
One media buyer, who also did not want to speak for attribution, agreed. "NBC is doing what it's doing because it has not succeeded in putting on many hit shows recently, so it has nothing to lose trying something new. The bottom line is that whatever the process, the shows NBC puts on have to be of high quality and stay on the air, or this strategy won't work either."
But the buyer also said that NBC's openness to network-agency partnerships for branded content is a plus that will help it bring in more ad dollars. Magna's Sternberg echoed that by saying, "There was a clear feeling that NBC sees us as partners, which is a must today."
Michael Pilot, president of NBC Universal Sales and Marketing, was realistic about the level of sales benefit that can be achieved in the first year of NBC's new business model. "We may not do much incremental business between now and the upfront," said Pilot. "Any deals we do will be gravy. But I'm hoping that advertisers will see this as making our network easier to work with and easier to buy. Some [buyer or advertiser] may see a show we are planning to put on in 2009 and we may be able begin a dialogue or partnership now to get them involved in that show."